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Hey Reader,

Did you see this post circulating around last week? Referencing US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the post's headline stated this:

This feels a bit misleading.

In the referenced report, it says "faster than the average for all occupations". It doesn't say, the "fastest-growing profession in the nation".

But don't get me wrong, barbering is growing rapidly. At a high level, finding trustworthy stats on the beauty and barber industry are very difficult to come by. Each state reports differently. Luckily for me, California's Board does a great job of providing accessible stats making it easy to reference real facts.

I took a deep dive of licensing population statistics from California's Board of Barbering and Cosmetology (BBC) and I think 7% growth over the next 10 years is underestimating the growth we'll see.

California Licensing Population Stats

Over the last 6 years in California, below is the growth and decline of license population by license type. The list is in order of most growth % to least growth %.

• Barber apprentices: 60% growth (1,581 to 2,523)
• Mobile Units: 58% growth (48 to 76)
• Barbers: 29% growth (31,549 to 40,696)
• Estheticians: 25% growth (88,747 to 111,308)
• Establishments: 12% growth (52,617 to 59,032)
• Cosmetology apprentices: 9% growth (1,427 to 1,550)
• Manicurists: 0% growth (129,994 to 129,897)
• Cosmetologists: -3% decline (313,650 to 305,110)
• Electrologists: -5% decline (1,711 to 1,618)

Keep in mind, this is growth % and not by total population. For example, Cosmetologists have declined 3% but they still have a total license population of over 300,000 while barbers have grown 29% but have a total license population of around 40,000. Yes, this means there are 7.5x MORE cosmetologists than barbers in California. If you think of the amount of barbershops vs salons in your city, honestly, checks out.

Opting for apprenticeships

Let's talk about apprentices for a moment. Despite having the lowest barber exam pass rates of 36%, the barber apprentice program has seen the most growth of all license. In many recent BBC board meetings, Executive Offer Kristy Underwood has laid out significant concerns over the regulations of these programs. Yet this last week, $68 million of funding was approved to boost apprenticeship program funding in California. It doesn't look like apprenticeship programs are going anywhere with funding like this.

*Note: there are rumors that the Department of Education could be abolished by the new administration. If this happens, there would be major affects to financial aid availability for barber schools making it near impossible for students to attend a school with tuition of $20,000. This could drive even more students to opt for apprenticeship programs.

Mobile barber vans

Mobile units are 2nd on the list of growth. The 58% growth signals to the rise in mobile barber vans and trailers that found a niche audience post 2020. Back in 2022, I interviewed Ryan Rich from The Lonely Barber where we talked all about his mobile barber van buildout.

Barbers & Estheticians on the rise

Next on the list. Barbers have seen slightly more growth (29%) than estheticians (25%), while cosmetologists have seen a decline of 3%. It could be that instead of wanting to be a cosmetologist, a student might opt for barbering or esthetics. It could also be an affect of social media popularizing barbering amongst Gen Z. Has education culture shifted away from university education and towards the value of trade schools? Maybe.

Opening new shops

Establishments have risen 12%. This isn't just barbershops, it's inclusive of all establishments (salons, esthetics, barbershops etc.). With many barbers opting for the solo suite, they would have to apply for a new establishment license. Then there's the barbers who left their shop and wanted to open their own across town (or maybe even on the same block). No cap, I know a barber who had worked at a shop for years and then opened up a new shop less than a block away.

Career vs side hustle

However, despite the growth, stats are showing that not everyone is actually using their license. At the time of license renewal, the BBC will send an optional survey to licensees asking them to share their employment status. In the most recent surveys between October 2024 to December 2024, 32% of survey participants indicated they are not actively working in the industry but simply renewing the license so that they don't lose it.

OG barbers are skeptical. Having witnessed the rise in newly licensed barbers, they doubt these young barbers are serious. They get the license, work in a shop and call it quits within the first 5 years. Social media has glorified the 'celebrity/influencer barber' and some realize it's not that easy. Unwilling to put in the work to build your clientele, they pivot to a different career and cut hair as a side hustle instead of the main hustle.

Looking forward

Stats never tell the fully story, but they do provide a skeleton for the story. Ultimately, barbering has bounced back. What seemed to be a profession on the decline in the 2000s and early 2010s has transformed and captured the attention of the next generation. Will this next generation make it a long lasting career? Will these new establishments make it in their communities?

Time will tell.

Alright, finished with No.87. See you next week!

Written by: Matthew Mendoza​​
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