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Hey Reader,

California's Board of Barbering and Cosmetology recently released their Sunset Review report that included our current license populations. Among many other interesting topics, it outlines various data points like active licenses, delinquent/inactive licenses and issued licenses.

Data provides a skeleton for stories. And there's definitely a story about where our industry is headed buried inside this one.

Barbering is growing

Over the last 3 years, barber licenses have steadily increased. In FY 2021/22 there were 29,727 active barbers. By FY 2024/25 that number had grown to 33,160. That’s more than 3,400 additional active barbers in just three years, roughly 11.5% growth.

At first glance, that sounds like a simple story: barbering is growing.

But when you zoom out and compare barbering to the rest of the beauty industry, something more interesting appears.

Esthetics is growing, Cosmos not so much

During the same time period, cosmetology licenses declined from 247,896 to 232,274, while esthetician licenses increased from 80,927 to 88,344.

We're witnessing a quiet reshaping of the industry.

Barbering is expanding. Skin services are booming. Traditional cosmetology is slowly shrinking.

As barbers have focused more on precision shear cutting, some students might be opting for the barber license instead of cosmetology. While other students may just be inspired by the social media barber craze and opted to pursue a barber license. Regardless, barbering continues to grow.

Hold the phone though. Another interesting signal has appeared.

Barbers are quitting?

The number of delinquent or expired barber licenses has more than doubled, rising from 3,413 in 2021/22 to 7,029 in 2024/25.

Wtf is happening?

At first, it sounds alarming. Immediately, we probably think of the narrative that says: 'These new barbers don't have what it takes. They'll be out of the industry before they hit 5 years.' This may be true for some, but there's another story that could be at play: a generational turnover.

Many barbers who entered the profession in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s are now reaching retirement age. When barbers retire, they rarely register their license as “retired.” Instead, they simply stop renewing it, which places them in the delinquent category.

In other words, the data might be capturing the moment when one generation of barbers steps back while another generation steps up.

We're already seeing this happen as the traditional barbershops have become outnumbered by the a younger generation. Soon enough, we might start to see these traditional barbershops quietly fade away.

If you've been around, this is a topic I've covered at length. (Read this blog 'Your Exit Plan: Selling Your Barbershop').​

Shops are closing?

This brings us to one more interesting stat. While the number of active licensed barbers has increased, the number of licensed establishments declined, falling from 52,335 to 49,144. That's a little over a 3,000 shop drop. Though the establishment license is not barbershop specific, it still signals something is happening.

Could it be that more professionals are ditching suites and headed back to a shop? Could it be that some shops are closing down? It could also be that professionals just aren't applying for an establishment license like they should. It's tough to tell, but regardless, there's a decline.

The data signals that barbering isn’t just growing, it’s evolving.

Culture Shift?

As we listen around to the chatter on social media, we're seeing more and more team focused content. It's no longer just about the individual, it's about the shop. It's about the shop culture. It's about growing together as a team and as an overall brand.

At one point in time, people were interested in cutting hair because of an individual. Today, people might be interested in cutting hair because of a brand. This sparks new student enrollment while funneling the newly licensed barbers to well-established shops. Increased licensees and less establishments.

There's something happening in this intersection and it's brands that place an emphasis on team culture that are emerging as the culture shapers. It feels like a quiet shift, but now is not the time to be quiet.

Written by: Matthew Mendoza​​
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